Archive - The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd)

AI's seductive mirage.

tl;dr: AI's seductive mirage is that it seems to do everything humans can do — but AI systems can't make meaning. Understanding this helps us build good…

Jul 24 •

June 2024

Sawdust and aluminum shavings.

In which making built-in shelving makes me think about strategic tradeoffs — with links to three earlier essays on tradeoffs and strategy.

Jun 26 •

What AI systems do better than humans, and why the most valuable AI workflows will be those in which AI systems and humans work interdependently on what…

Jun 12 •

May 2024

AI's meaning-making problem.

Current AI discourse doesn't talk about human meaning-making — subjective decisions about value that AI systems can't make, which are nonetheless…

May 22 •

An end to firefighting

Explains why organizational firefighting is so common in policy teams, and how to use an uncertainty mindset to put a stop to it.

May 8 •

April 2024

Sneaky innovation

I unpack the reasoning behind a product strategy workshop I run where teams learn-by-doing four key skills of effective innovation work: Asking good…

Apr 24 •

Why and when to begin with amorphous consulting.

Apr 10 •

March 2024

Amorphous consulting

Amorphous consulting is for the problems organizations can’t put words to yet.

Mar 27 •

Transmission fidelity

How do we decide what makes a tool good and what kinds of tools we should aim to make? Read on for a new quality criterion for tools (their accuracy and…

Mar 14 •

February 2024

In which I pay for sea turtles in Costa Rica with unexpectedly crummy flooring and an ensuing DIY rabbithole.

Feb 28 •

Strategies for different uncertainties

Words and tools to help those who "get" uncertainty help those who don't.

Feb 14 •

January 2024

Low-drag machines

Startup founders, leaders, and workers who can distinguish clearly between risk and uncertainty are able to rewire their startups to be better at…

Jan 25 •

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